Calculating Outs part 3

But its not enough to calculate your outs. You have to consider the cards of your opponents, too.
Using the example from the previous post with different opponent cards:
We are holding: A♥, K♥
Our opponent holds: A♣, 9♦
Flop: 7♥,3♣,9♥

When an Ace hits the turn or the river we still get our pair. But our opponent gets a double-pair which is stronger.
=> Out hand will not be the winning hand if an Ace shows up.
Now our 15 outs (3 A, 3K, 9 Hearts) suddenly become 12 outs, because you would not win with the Aces.

What if our opponent holds pocket 7?

We are holding: A♥, K♥
Our opponent holds: 7♣, 7♦
Flop: 7♥,3♣,9♥

Aces or Kings won't help in this situation because he has a triple. The only remaining possibility is the flush. But a 3♥ will give him a full house.
So the number of our outs shrink to 15 -3(Aces won't help) - 3(Kings won't help) -1 (3♥ will give him full house)
=> only 8 outs left.

Even if we make our hand on the turn, even if we would hit a heart on the turn our opponent will have 10 outs left to make a better hand!
One 7, three 3s, three 9s and three of whatever car  hit the turn. So even if you have a flush he has 10 outs to make quads or a full house and beat you.


Runner-Runner Outs
If you need two cards to make your winning hand, one on the turn and one on the river, it is called a runner-runner out.

Example:
We are holding: 5♥,6♥
Our opponent holds: A♣, Q♦
Flop: 5♦, 7♥, Q♣

We have 5 ordinary outs:
Two 5s to make trips, Three 6s to make double-pair.

But we have also one runner-runner flush out (if a heart hits turn and river) and one runner-runner straight out (Turn 4, River 3 or Turn 4, River 8 or Turn 8, River 9)

So a total of 7 outs.

=> Do not put your money in for a second pair when they have top pair!

Calculating Outs part 2

Lets look at another example:
We are holding: A♥, K♥
Our opponent holds: J♣, J♠
Flop: 7♥,3♣,9♥

In this case the AK of hearts is the weaker hand.To win we have following options:
A pair with either the King or the Ace.
A double pair with King and Ace.
A triple with King or the Ace.
A flush.

You can categorize the first three options.
For all of them you need at least one King or one Ace. There are 3 remaining Kings and 3 remaining Aces in the deck. That gives us 6 outs for the first three options.

For the flush we need another card of hearts. There are 9 remaining heart cards left in the deck. So that gives us another 9 outs.
=> total of 15 outs for that situation

We know now that there is a maximum of 15 winning cards left in the deck. But some cards may have been already folded or some could be in our opponent's hand.
But since we don't know what cards have been folded we have to proceed under the assumption that all of our potential outs are available.


Common "outs" Situations:
- Flop a flush draw => 9 outs
- Flop a flush draw with two over cards (seen in example above) => 15 outs
- Flop an open-ended straight draw => 8 outs
- Flop a gut-shot straight draw => 4  outs (i.e. 5,6,8,9: you need the 7, only 4 7s left)
- Under-pair to your opponents over-pair => 2 outs
- If neither you or your opponent have a pair, but he is still ahead => 6 outs
(i.e. he has A,K; you have Q,J => 3 Jacks, 3 Queens)
- Flop a straight flush draw => 15 outs

Remember tho, you usually don't have all your outs to come and improve your hand.

Calculating outs part 3

Calculating Outs part 1

In this blogpost i will show you how to calculate the number of outs you have for a given hand. You probably saw it on TV: a player puts all his chips in the middle and then asks the dealer: "just one time!"
He is begging the dealer to give him one of his outs: a card to make his loosing hand the winning hand.
What are outs?
They are the card, or cards, that can hit the board to give a player who is holding a losing hand a winning one.

One basic example:
You have pocket Jacks and go all-in pre-flop. A player behind you calls and shows pocket aces. How many cards in the deck can give you the winning hand?

Pre-flop there are only 2 outs: the 2 remaining Jacks
Lets say the flop is 8,  9 and 10 offsuit. Now how many outs do you have?
The answer is 10.
7 and Q would both give you a straight. There are 4 7s and 4 Qs left in the deck so 8 outs for a straight. Plus the 2 outs from pre-flop which would give you trips or possibly quads.

=> The number of outs can increase or decrease depending on the cards which fall on the flop or turn.

I will post more examples in one of the next posts and show you ways to easily determine the number of out at any given time with any given hand.

Calculating Outs part 2

Intro to Poker Math

In the next couple of blog posts i will write about poker math. Many of you will now say: i don't want to learn  that, its too complicated.
But I assure you: this topic is very simple and easy to master and
When you understand the math...
-you make better decisions
-you win more money
-you win more pots


Poker is a game filled with numbers:
Stack sizes - Blind levels - Money in the pot - Players in the pot

Numbers are important to poker so you need to understand the math behind them!

In the next couple of blog post I will show you how to calculate
1."Outs"
2.Pot odds
3.Implied odds
4.The "M"

Of course poker consists of many elements and math is just one little part of it but understanding and applying poker math is critical in analyzing hands and making decisions.

Proper bet sizing

No limit hold'em means you can bet whatever amount you want when you want during a hand. But nevertheless dont just bet randomly!
The very best players bet consistently throughout a hand.
Espscially in tournaments it is important to size your bets based on the size of the pot and the size of your stack.

The "ideal bet":
-between 1/2 and 2/3 of the pot.
-consistency: pick a percentage to use throughout the game or tournament no matter what size the pot is.

The opposite of the "ideal bet" is the "minimum bet". It is equal to the size of the big blind.
A "min bet" is almost never correct, unless the "min bet" is equal to 1/2 or 2/3 of the pot.

The "pot size" bet:
-A bet equal to the amount of chips already in the pot.
A "pot size" bet is typically not correct, but it can be used in certain situations.
-Puts maximum pressure on an opponent without betting all your chips
-To confuse opponents if you hit a great flop

The "all-in" bet:
-A bet with all your chips.
Allows you to apply maximum pressure on your opponent. Its the right play to make if you are betting 1/3 or more of your entire stack. By moving all in instead of betting 1/3 of your stack you have no further action in the hand, but to sit back and watch the cards. And you dont have to make a desicion for the few chips you have left.
If you have less than 15 times the big blind pre-flop, moving all-in on any hand you choose to play is the standard move.

Defensive betting

When you are defensively betting your goal is to have your opponent call or fold only so they dont take the lead or rase your hand.
Bet defensively when you are on a draw and have not made your hand yet.
I.e. we played 7,8s in middle position. On flop we get a flush draw. Checking in that situation is ok but it might not be the best decision because we give up potential value if we hit that draw.
But this would give our opponent the chance to make a bet which would force us to fold.

The trick to betting defensively is to make a bet big enough for them to call or fold, but cheap enough that it doesnt cost you too much to see the next card.
Usually a bet around 1/3 the size of the pot is the right bet.

Another example for the goals of betting

This time we want our opponent to call or raise our bet.
We are in middle position with poket eights and we raised three times the big blind in pre-flop. The player in the big blind position calls. Lets assume he has A 9 offsuit.
The flop is Ace of spades 8 of hearts and 3 of hearts.

We have triple 8 and our opponent a pair of aces.
How can we bet to get the most amount of money out of our opponent?
We want to makeour hand look weaker than it actually is.
How can we do this?

-If you act first, and your opponent is aggresive make a small bet roughly 1/2 the pot. If hes not aggesive just check and hope that he raises for you.
-If your opponent acts first and checks, you could check to make him think his aces look good.
-If he raises you should just call.

Making Money with Online Poker as a Beginner

The temptation is big: lots of thousands of dollars are moving through the online poker rooms. Everyone wants his share and wants to make money with online poker.
Sometimes you play and you won a big amount of money, but sometimes you loose a big amount of money. Usually for begginers the negative side is more.
Then you think about the time you won and you ask yourself the question what am i doing wrong at the moment. Probably nothing major! Your stack will always flucktuate and if you dont make any big mistakes it is more luck than skill in what direction it fluctuates.

The problem is that online pokerrooms always collect a rake (some percentage of the pot). So especially at beginner tables it is not unlikely that everyone looses. If you really want to make money with online poker you have to make a constant plus per hand and play at a lot of tables with high blinds.
That means:
-ALOT of practice
-seed capital
-immunity towards frustration


In conclusion: DO NOT try to make money with online poker as a beginner!

The goals of betting

As mentioned in the last to posts:
You want your bets to have purpose and you want your bet to tell a story to get your opponents to act the way you want them to.
How do you do this?
First, you have to identify what you want them to do.
There are only three possibilities: fold, call or raise.
One example:
Your on a 9 player table and you have KQ offsuit. You raise to 3 times the big blind preflop and only one opponent is left. The flop brings King of hearts and Queen of hearts and four of spades. You hit a top two pair. What do you do now?

Even though you hit top two pair, it is still a scary flop. Your opponent might have a flush draw or a straight draw. You want to end the hand right now.

The first thing to determine is what kind of player he is.
A: Loose (more likely to chase cards)
B: Tight (most likely to fold)

As your opponent will only hit the draw 1/3 of a time betting half the pot will likely get a tight player to fold because the odds are not in his favor for the amount of money he has to put in.
Against a loose opponent a 1/2 the pot bet is probably to small. You will have to make a full pot bet or even over bet the pot to try to get him to fold. In some cases this may mean going all in.

Betting Checklist

Before acting on your hand there is a list of questions you should ask yourself. But there is no one right way to play a given hand.

- The size of your stack is one of the most important issues to consider. Its size (relative to the blinds) determine the options you have.
With a very small stack your options are limited to folding and all-in.
A bigger stack (at least 30-times the big blind) gives you the posibility to raise and re-raise before the flop.

- The second issue to consider before you bet is your position on the table. There are some blogposts about that.

- The third item to consider is the size of the blinds and the amount of money in the pot. Remember: when you bet you tell a story. If that story does not make sense no one will follow it.
For pre-flop bets a good rule of thumb is a raise about 3 to 4 times the big blind.

- The action that happend in front of you. By paying attention to it you can determine the strength of your opponents hands. It helps to decide what type of players your opponents are. Are they loose, tight, aggressive or passive?

This is the checklist which you should go through with every bet. And finally: your bet has to serve a purpose. Do you want your opponents to fold or do you want them to put as much money in the pot as possible?

Betting Guidelines

These guidlines will help you to decide when and how much to bet.

Very important: Every bet you make should serve a purpose!
I.e. to get your opponent to fold, call or raise

Betting is like telling a story. It has to make sense otherwise your opponents wont follow you.

Betting options:
1.Call:
Matching the pot size
2.Raise:
Putting more money in the pot than the person before you.
3.Fold:
Giving up your hand when the action reaches you.
But dont forget to watch the players who still play after you folded. You can pick up valuable information about they play. Know your enemy!
4.Check:
 You have as much money in the pot and dont want to raise or fold.

If you play in a real casino not online, always announce the size of your bet. The announcement is binding and if you accidently put more or less chips in the pot than you wanted, you can adjust them.

Playing A-K

AK is a very good hand pre-flop. Nevertheless people tend to overvalue its strength after the flop.
It is one of the top 5 starting hands => play it aggressively pre-flop.

Facts that are important for playing AK pre-flop are:
-you stack
-your opponents stacks
-blinds and antes

Try to get the last bet pre-flop because either your opponents fold and you win or the pot is very large and you still have good chances of winning.
If your opponent has a smaller pair your chances are about the same. If he does not hold a pair your chances of winning are far higher.
But against multiple opponents your hand becomes far less valuable in post-flop!

Suited Connectors

Suited Connectors are probably the most overvalued hands in poker.
They are not bad hands, but you need the right circumstances from them to be powerful. The odds for these circumstances to occur are very low!

You can almost every time play them if you are in late position and action folds to you. Otherwise only play them if the flop will be cheap.

As suited connectors are not premium or solid hands folding should be considered when:
- Action in front of you
- You missed the flop
- No draws
- Flopped bottom pair

In general: don't overvalue suited connectors like most beginners or amateurs and proceed cautiously when playing them.

Playing from the Blinds

The question in the blind positions is always: Should you play your hand, or let it go?
Many players don't want to loose their invested blinds and tend to play more hands than they should.
Don't hesitate to throw your cards away!

Remember: Pre-flop your position is the best. Use the gathered information to your advantage!

Late Position Hand Selection

In late position your hand range widens when you're the first into a pot.
Of course it is still not recommended to raise with junk hands. But you should increase your aggression in the late position.

When you're not holding premium cards, folding to a pre-flop re-raise is OK.

In general: When action folds to you on the button, it's acceptable to raise up to 80% of your starting hands.

In case you want to bluff you have to consider the following:
-Stack size of your opponents especially the blind positions
-Your style of playing and how your opponents notice it. If you raise very often it might not be a good idea to bluff.

Middle Position Hand Selection

The middle position allows you to open the pot with a wider range of hands.
Because fewer players sit behind you it is less likely that someone has a very good hand.
When action is folded to you in middle position your opening hand range becomes wider.
- 55, 66
- KQ, KJ suited
- A-10 suited

You can even consider to call an opponents pre-flop raise with these starting hands.
Always be aware of your opponents images and stack sizes.

In middle position you have to ask yourself these questions:
- What if a bigger stacked opponent re-raises you?
- Will you call if a short stack opponent shoves?
- Which players at your table are loose, which are tight?

Remember: Its always better to be the raiser than the caller!
An early position raise usually signifies strength. => yourcalling hand range becomes smaller.
Dont be to attached to your cards after the flop!

Early Position Hand Selection

The relative strength of your hand is very dependend on your position on the table.
Especially in early position you have very little to no information at all about the hands of your opponents.

You have to ask yourself the question if your hand is strong enough to call a raise or even strong enough to reraise.

When you decide to enter the pot it is a good idea to raise because:
1. Your opponent knows you have a strong hand.
2. Eliminates weaker opponents
3. Gives you the lead in the hand

In the early stages of a tournament, limit your early position starting hands to only the strongest range of starting hands. Later in the tournament you can open up your range because players are more likely to fold.

The Importance of Position

Position at the table is critical and dictates how and when you play your starting hands.
It is so important because when you have an early position you have less information on other players, because they have not yet acted. If someone raises in preflop for example you do not wanna play a speculative hand. But you dont have this information if you sit on an earlier position on the table.
More information => better judgement => higher chances to win!

Emotions and poker

When i play poker and make mistakes, i usually notice that i made this mistake right after i made it.
This occurs especially in risky situations with high pots an low chances to win. This emotion, this eagerness to know if you win or not is my worst enemy in poker.
Until now there were only a few situations where i noticed it before making the wrong decision.
If you want to be a successfull poker play keep one thing in mind: always act rational, observe your emotions and fight against their voices.

Bluffing

Bluffing is a very important part of poker. If luck is not at your side it is the only way to win.

By your biding you pretend that you have good cards but infact you have nothing. If your bluff is successfull all your opponents will fold because they think they have no chance to win and you get to win the blinds.
Beware: you can only bluff if there are bluffable cards on the flop.
If the flop is i.e. 9, 10, K you could bluff a straight. If it is 2,6,10 you can go for a three of a kind bluff maximum. Always check if a extremly good hand is possible before you bluff.

It is also possible to bluff a bluff. If you have a extremly good hand (full house or straight flush for example) and you want to make the most out of it you can bluff a bluff. Your opponents should think, that the noticed your bluff and go with your extremly high raises. This is rather difficult to achieve but if you failed a bluff before it is possible, that the trap works.

Poker - Cheatsheets#2 Bluffing