Thursday, January 5, 2012

Calculating Outs part 3

But its not enough to calculate your outs. You have to consider the cards of your opponents, too.
Using the example from the previous post with different opponent cards:
We are holding: A, K
Our opponent holds: A♣, 9
Flop: 7,3♣,9

When an Ace hits the turn or the river we still get our pair. But our opponent gets a double-pair which is stronger.
=> Out hand will not be the winning hand if an Ace shows up.
Now our 15 outs (3 A, 3K, 9 Hearts) suddenly become 12 outs, because you would not win with the Aces.

What if our opponent holds pocket 7?

We are holding: A, K
Our opponent holds: 7♣, 7
Flop: 7,3♣,9

Aces or Kings won't help in this situation because he has a triple. The only remaining possibility is the flush. But a 3 will give him a full house.
So the number of our outs shrink to 15 -3(Aces won't help) - 3(Kings won't help) -1 (3 will give him full house)
=> only 8 outs left.

Even if we make our hand on the turn, even if we would hit a heart on the turn our opponent will have 10 outs left to make a better hand!
One 7, three 3s, three 9s and three of whatever car  hit the turn. So even if you have a flush he has 10 outs to make quads or a full house and beat you.

Runner-Runner Outs
If you need two cards to make your winning hand, one on the turn and one on the river, it is called a runner-runner out.

We are holding: 5,6
Our opponent holds: A♣, Q
Flop: 5, 7, Q♣

We have 5 ordinary outs:
Two 5s to make trips, Three 6s to make double-pair.

But we have also one runner-runner flush out (if a heart hits turn and river) and one runner-runner straight out (Turn 4, River 3 or Turn 4, River 8 or Turn 8, River 9)

So a total of 7 outs.

=> Do not put your money in for a second pair when they have top pair!