Calculating Outs part 3

But its not enough to calculate your outs. You have to consider the cards of your opponents, too.
Using the example from the previous post with different opponent cards:
We are holding: A♥, K♥
Our opponent holds: A♣, 9♦
Flop: 7♥,3♣,9♥

When an Ace hits the turn or the river we still get our pair. But our opponent gets a double-pair which is stronger.
=> Out hand will not be the winning hand if an Ace shows up.
Now our 15 outs (3 A, 3K, 9 Hearts) suddenly become 12 outs, because you would not win with the Aces.

What if our opponent holds pocket 7?

We are holding: A♥, K♥
Our opponent holds: 7♣, 7♦
Flop: 7♥,3♣,9♥

Aces or Kings won't help in this situation because he has a triple. The only remaining possibility is the flush. But a 3♥ will give him a full house.
So the number of our outs shrink to 15 -3(Aces won't help) - 3(Kings won't help) -1 (3♥ will give him full house)
=> only 8 outs left.

Even if we make our hand on the turn, even if we would hit a heart on the turn our opponent will have 10 outs left to make a better hand!
One 7, three 3s, three 9s and three of whatever car  hit the turn. So even if you have a flush he has 10 outs to make quads or a full house and beat you.


Runner-Runner Outs
If you need two cards to make your winning hand, one on the turn and one on the river, it is called a runner-runner out.

Example:
We are holding: 5♥,6♥
Our opponent holds: A♣, Q♦
Flop: 5♦, 7♥, Q♣

We have 5 ordinary outs:
Two 5s to make trips, Three 6s to make double-pair.

But we have also one runner-runner flush out (if a heart hits turn and river) and one runner-runner straight out (Turn 4, River 3 or Turn 4, River 8 or Turn 8, River 9)

So a total of 7 outs.

=> Do not put your money in for a second pair when they have top pair!

Making Money with Online Poker as a Beginner

The temptation is big: lots of thousands of dollars are moving through the online poker rooms. Everyone wants his share and wants to make money with online poker.
Sometimes you play and you won a big amount of money, but sometimes you loose a big amount of money. Usually for begginers the negative side is more.
Then you think about the time you won and you ask yourself the question what am i doing wrong at the moment. Probably nothing major! Your stack will always flucktuate and if you dont make any big mistakes it is more luck than skill in what direction it fluctuates.

The problem is that online pokerrooms always collect a rake (some percentage of the pot). So especially at beginner tables it is not unlikely that everyone looses. If you really want to make money with online poker you have to make a constant plus per hand and play at a lot of tables with high blinds.
That means:
-ALOT of practice
-seed capital
-immunity towards frustration


In conclusion: DO NOT try to make money with online poker as a beginner!

Playing A-K

AK is a very good hand pre-flop. Nevertheless people tend to overvalue its strength after the flop.
It is one of the top 5 starting hands => play it aggressively pre-flop.

Facts that are important for playing AK pre-flop are:
-you stack
-your opponents stacks
-blinds and antes

Try to get the last bet pre-flop because either your opponents fold and you win or the pot is very large and you still have good chances of winning.
If your opponent has a smaller pair your chances are about the same. If he does not hold a pair your chances of winning are far higher.
But against multiple opponents your hand becomes far less valuable in post-flop!

Suited Connectors

Suited Connectors are probably the most overvalued hands in poker.
They are not bad hands, but you need the right circumstances from them to be powerful. The odds for these circumstances to occur are very low!

You can almost every time play them if you are in late position and action folds to you. Otherwise only play them if the flop will be cheap.

As suited connectors are not premium or solid hands folding should be considered when:
- Action in front of you
- You missed the flop
- No draws
- Flopped bottom pair

In general: don't overvalue suited connectors like most beginners or amateurs and proceed cautiously when playing them.

Early Position Hand Selection

The relative strength of your hand is very dependend on your position on the table.
Especially in early position you have very little to no information at all about the hands of your opponents.

You have to ask yourself the question if your hand is strong enough to call a raise or even strong enough to reraise.

When you decide to enter the pot it is a good idea to raise because:
1. Your opponent knows you have a strong hand.
2. Eliminates weaker opponents
3. Gives you the lead in the hand

In the early stages of a tournament, limit your early position starting hands to only the strongest range of starting hands. Later in the tournament you can open up your range because players are more likely to fold.

The Importance of Position

Position at the table is critical and dictates how and when you play your starting hands.
It is so important because when you have an early position you have less information on other players, because they have not yet acted. If someone raises in preflop for example you do not wanna play a speculative hand. But you dont have this information if you sit on an earlier position on the table.
More information => better judgement => higher chances to win!

Selecting your starting hands

As a beginner choosing good starting hands is the first thing to learn. Categorize them, rate them and play them carefully especially in the beginning. Also avoid playing hands just because they are suited! They only increase your chances of winning by 2% to 3%.
Your position and the actions before you matter as well. These topics will be discussed in later lessons!